Is it realistic for "trams to completely replace oil trains"?
The BMW Five Series recently rolled off the assembly line with the final internal combustion engine produced at the Munich plant, news of which caused strong reactions in the industry. In recent years, many traditional automakers have begun to shrink or even stop their fuel-vehicle business processes under the general trend of decarbonization, transforming and developing towards the electrification of automobiles. The future of electric cars can really completely replace the fuel car?
Previously, a number of automobile companies around the world have determined to stop selling fuel cars for a long time. For example, BYD Auto, Miles last year, called off the fuel car business process; Audi announced that from 2026 onwards, the new models released for the world sales market will gradually switch to pure electric cars, 2033 gradually terminate the production of internal combustion engine models manufacturing.
Many countries and regions around the world have already formulated a clear direction to stop the production or sale of fuel vehicles. Seattle, the United States announced that it will ban the sale of a new fuel car before 2035. At the Chinese level, Hainan announced in August last year, "Hainan Province Carbon Peak Implementation Program" established that by 2030, Hainan Island expressly prohibit the sale of gasoline and diesel vehicles on the market.
Accompanied by a stop-sale, stop-work timetable announced, traditional fuel vehicles out of the market seems irredeemable. But interviews with industry insiders, even if the "traditional gasoline and diesel cars" out of the market, the internal combustion engine in the automotive industry still has the significance of existence.
Yao Chunde, an expert professor at Nankai University's Key Laboratory of Internal Combustion Engine Combustion, told reporters: "'Stop using fuel vehicles' is not the same as 'stop using the internal combustion engine'. In the future, the traditional internal combustion engine still has the opportunity to play an important role again with innovation. For example, hybrid vehicle technology better combines the internal combustion engine and electric motor, so that the car can drive more efficiently, and reduce the pollution of the environment, won the sales market unanimously recognized."
In recent years, sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles (including programmable models) have shown a surge trend, contributing to a significant increase in new energy vehicle sales. According to the data of the passenger association, in October, the wholesale sales of plug-in hybrid models amounted to 298,000 units, an increase of 78.2% year-on-year, and a year-on-year growth rate of 9.9%.
"Plug-in hybrid models will have such a high sales market recognition, the main reason is to circumvent the pure electric car cars exist mileage anxiety, charging difficult problem. In addition, plug-in hybrid cars because the number of rechargeable batteries to reduce the rechargeable batteries tempted to send safety issues are not prominent. In the future, even if the full range of pure gasoline and diesel cars, the internal combustion engine can still be fully utilized in hybrid models." Yao Chunde explained.
Industry insiders said that the ultimate goal of banning the sale of fuel cars is not to solve the internal combustion engine, but rather from the source of carbon emissions reduction. Thus, the fuel car ban should be shallow to deep, can not be rushed. To allow a variety of diversified technology development trends, rather than a large-scale "one size fits all".
"In fact, when the fuel car stock delisting is more by the market decision. For enterprises, today's fuel car is still a profitable commodity." Yao Chunde indicated.
Yao Chunde feels that stopping work and sales of fuel vehicles is not the same as the internal combustion engine is outdated, the actual termination or reduction of the pure fuel engine powertrain approach. "Like the programmable electric vehicles, oil-electric hybrid such by the internal combustion engine and electric motor to form a completely new car powertrain way, will still exist."
In addition, the country's geographic development is not balanced, and the demand for vehicle use varies from industry to industry, so in some scenarios, it is difficult for new energy technology vehicles to replace traditional fuel vehicles in all aspects in the short term. "In the future, fuel vehicles will need to exist in some scenarios. For example, the rural electric-style car after-sales service network and infrastructure construction is not perfect, temporarily unable to meet the actual demand." Cao He, chief president of the alliance has the car dealer capital management (Beijing) limited liability company, said in an interview with reporters earlier.