TOPCon Leads to Changes in the Photovoltaic Industry
In recent years, the new materials industry is a hit, the new technology is dazzling, from the photovoltaic industry, HJT, TOPCon, BC, Calcium Titanium Ore, to lithium batteries and lithium energy storage industry, sodium electricity, solid, liquid, composite collector, lithium manganese iron phosphate, and so on.
However, standing in this round of new energy technology trend down the more sensitive connection point, at this stage really over the important "1", get industrialization certification and achieve large-scale market penetration of technology iteration is very little, N-type TOPCon counts as one of them.
It is a cruel fact that technology iteration is not easy.
As a constant observer and firm supporter of N-Type TOPCon, I have carried TOPCon from "skeptical" to "popular" all the way to the rise.
Now, TOPCon is riding high, in this year's share is expected to be more than 20%, the next year is expected to exceed 40% and beyond the PERC technology into NO.1 technology road, the sales market end to show a crushing attitude, relative to the divergence of the HJT, BC's limitations and the tenderness of the calcitonium titanium ore, TOPCon is indisputable, the full display of the king's temperament.
However, we must pay attention to the fact that TOPCon is different from the past BSF, PERC battery evolution development trend, the technology fortress is higher, more serious split, has far-reaching impact on the future of the photovoltaic industry industry pattern.
TOPCon becomes the main battlefield
Accompanied by component prices all the way down, PERC clearing trend is becoming more and more obvious.
N-type to replace the P-type has long been unstoppable, TOPCon is even more to occupy the absolute popularity. More crucially, PV giants in TOPCon highly consistent, such as the number of scale reasonable deployment, which also increased the TOPCon to replace PERC speed and magnitude.
In contrast, HJT still exists changes, the road to cost reduction is not flat, several years of predictions again and again into the void, is still the core of the new power, very few PV giants try, the short-term occupancy rate is relatively limited.
In addition, BC rechargeable batteries are not perfect, the more consistent view at this stage is that more suitable for household PV sales market, especially abroad, it happens to be both aesthetics, low rate of both sides and low cost sensitivity, and large ground power station on the efficiency of the cost of the comprehensive requirements of the cost of high, BC rechargeable batteries can't be reached in the short term, which also determines BC rechargeable batteries in the short term occupancy rate is very limited.
For chalcogenide and other new technologies, in terms of large-scale industrialization is still facing technology and cost innovation, more likely the next generation of orientation, is not yet into the scale of industrialization "effective range".
The public has always emphasized that, in the process of continuous technology iteration, PV power generation industrialization has only bridging technology, not the final technology, only the best technology of the current time, not the best technology of the long term.
At the present time, in the visible "effective range", TOPCon undoubtedly in the cost and efficiency of rolling over other technologies, the share is still in the rapid upgrading of the link, and is expected to become a signboard in the next year, TOPCon will undoubtedly become the main battleground of the iteration of solar cell technology.
TOPCon bastion emerging
However, this main battlefield is not interesting.
This public number in March this year, "TOPCon's Peak Moment", the former professional focus: "yield is the key", production capacity wild ride, must be cold thinking.
Nowadays, the TOPCon yield rate problem is accompanied by production capacity promotion, gradually reflected, and the gap is obvious.
The industrialization of all generation of rechargeable battery technology has always encountered the problem of increasing yield rate, but compared with BSF and PERC technology in the past, TOPCon is more obvious.
TOPCon processing technology stage is more, more complex machinery and equipment and process, and incomplete machinery and equipment rely on the battery enterprise process technology requirements are relatively high, practical experience is particularly important, each yield difference is obvious.
More critically, in the industrialization of the link, TOPCon technology is not static, the structure is more and more complex, the process operating procedures are more and more detailed, equipment and materials are still being optimized, more and more close to the semiconductor material regulations, mass production conversion efficiency is still improving.
This requires a basic understanding of the technology, a reserve for the future, and a cognitive ability to recognize the direction, and the requirements in terms of process flow, product selection, plant construction, manufacturing management, and future expansion are much higher than in the PERC period.
In short, TOPCon production process is long and complicated, practical experience requires high, technology-oriented more prominent, and no longer a simple pile of machinery and equipment and capital-oriented, new forces involved in the coefficient of difficulty is very large, more and more assets have been "difficult".
TOPCon will open the market competition difference
That is, TOPCon is the main battlefield, and there is a relatively high fortress, that will eventually become the photovoltaic industry to open the distance of the gossip palm.
Rechargeable battery technology continues to develop, conversion efficiency is getting closer and closer to the polysilicon based on theoretical limit values, market competition is increasingly manifested in the millimeters between the tiny differences in technology may lead to a huge gap in core competitiveness.
TOPCon in technology and process aspects of the relatively high fortress, will eventually according to the rate of uphill, yield rate, conversion efficiency, production volume and profitability and other factors, and constantly amplified, so that in the process of the continuous expansion of the sales market jeopardize the market pattern.
In the past PV power generation competition, a very important reason is that the technology homogenization is more serious, the assets rely on, first to the shortcomings.
This time is not quite the same, TOPCon technology is still evolving, process and machinery and equipment is still gradually improved, the sense of dependence on the process is relatively high, the yield rate and mass production conversion efficiency of the larger differences.
Many companies are likely to lose at the starting line, and the more the difference at the end, because the leading companies are still evolving and improving, after all, TOPCon still has a lot of optimization and improvement of indoor space, "know how to rise above the difficulties" may be the best choice.
It will be friendly to technical players, but not to asset-based players.
This time, looking forward to TOPCon's continuous technical fortress, can better promote the photovoltaic industry to solve the single competition, confirm that only capital can not play, and technology is the key to promote the industry to pay more attention to product research and development, pay more attention to the conversion efficiency and kWh of electricity cost improvement.
This is a technology dividend is the best period.
Photovoltaic battery as the core of the photovoltaic industry, the highest technical content, elasticity, technology iteration determines the trend of industrial chain development and market competition layout.
In this context, on the one hand, TOPCon scale share is also getting bigger and bigger, the strategic significance is getting higher and higher, turning into the main battlefield of photovoltaic power generation technology iteration; on the other hand, TOPCon because of the fortress is relatively high, the split is becoming more and more significant, and the difference between them will be bigger and bigger.
Occupancy rate increased significantly, market share reconstruction, TOPCon will determine the future industry pattern of the photovoltaic industry, especially the market share of the leading enterprises, to promote the photovoltaic industry ushered in a new round of industrial chain changes, eagerly awaited.